Herman Kahn

Herman Kahn (15 Februari 1922 – 7 Juli 1983) adalah pendiri Hudson Institute dan salah satu futuris ternama pada akhir abad ke-20. Ia awalnya dikenal sebagai strategiwan militer dan teoriwan sistem saat masih bekerja di RAND Corporation. Ia kemudian dikenal karena menganalisis potensi dampak perang nuklir dan menyarankan berbagai cara untuk meningkatkan kemungkinan selamat. Berkat analisis tersebut, Kahn menjadi satu dari tiga inspirasi bagi tokoh utama film satir komedi hitam Dr. Strangelove besutan Stanley Kubrick.^[1]

Teori-teorinya sangat memengaruhi perkembangan strategi nuklir Amerika Serikat.

Karya

Di luar bidang fisika dan statistika, karya-karya Kahn meliputi:

• 1960. On Thermonuclear War. Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-313-20060-2
• 1962. Thinking about the unthinkable. Horizon Press.
• 1965 On escalation: metaphors and scenarios. Praeger. [1]
• 1967. The Year 2000: a framework for speculation on the next thirty-three years. MacMillan. ISBN 0-02-560440-6. With Anthony Wiener.
• 1968 Can we win in Viet Nam?. Praeger. Kahn with four other authors: Gastil, Raymond D.; Pfaff, William; Stillman, Edmund; Armbruster, Frank E.
• 1970. The Emerging Japanese Superstate: challenge and response. Prentice Hall. ISBN 0-13-274670-0
• 1971. The Japanese challenge: The success and failure of economic success. Morrow; Andre Deutsch. ISBN 0-688-08710-8
• 1972. Things to come: thinking about the seventies and eighties. MacMillan. ISBN 0-02-560470-8. With B. Bruce-Briggs.
• 1973. Herman Kahnsciousness: the megaton ideas of the one-man think tank. New American Library. Selected and edited by Jerome Agel.
• 1974. The future of the corporation. Mason & Lipscomb. ISBN 0-88405-009-2
• 1976. The next 200 Years: a scenario for America and the world. Morrow. ISBN 0-688-08029-4
• 1979. World economic development: 1979 and beyond. William Morrow; Croom Helm. ISBN 0-688-03479-9. With Hollender, Jeffrey, and Hollender, John A.
• 1981. Will she be right? The future of Australia. University of Queensland Press. ISBN 0-7022-1569-4. With Thomas Pepper.
• 1983. The Coming Boom: economic, political, and social. Simon & Schuster; Hutchinson. ISBN 0-671-49265-9
• 1984 Thinking about the unthinkable in the 1980s. New York: Simon and Schuster. ISBN 0-671-47544-4 [2]
• The nature and feasibility of war, deterrence, and arms control (Central nuclear war monograph series), (Hudson Institute)
• A slightly optimistic world context for 1975–2000 (Hudson Institute. HI)
• Social limits to growth: "creeping stagnation" vs. "natural and inevitable" (HPS paper)
• A new kind of class struggle in the United States? (Corporate Environment Program. Research memorandum)

Karya terbitan RAND Corporation yang melibatkan Kahn:

• The nature and feasibility of war and deterrence, RAND Corporation paper P-1888-RC, 1960
• Some specific suggestions for achieving early non-military defense capabilities and initiating long-range programs, RAND Corporation research memorandum RM-2206-RC, 1958
• (team led by Herman Kahn) Report on a study of Non-Military Defense, RAND Corporation report R-322-RC, 1958
• Herman Kahn and Irwin Mann, War Gaming, RAND Corporation paper P-1167, 1957
• Herman Kahn and Irwin Mann, Ten common pitfalls, RAND research memorandum RM-1937-PR, 1957
• Herman Kahn, Stochastic (Monte Carlo) attenuation analysis, Santa, Monica, Calif., Rand Corp., 1949

Lihat pula

• Triad nuklir

Catatan kaki

Bacaan lanjutan

• Barry Bruce-Briggs, Supergenius: The mega-worlds of Herman Kahn, North American Policy Press
• Sharon Ghamari-Tabrizi, The Worlds of Herman Kahn: The Intuitive Science of Thermonuclear War, Harvard University Press, ISBN 0-674-01714-5 [reviewed by Christopher Coker in the Times Literary Supplement], nº 5332, 10 June 2005, p. 19.
• Fred Kaplan, The Wizards of Armageddon, Stanford Nuclear Age Series, ISBN 0-8047-1884-9
• Kate Lenkowsky, The Herman Kahn Center of the Hudson Institute, Hudson Institute
• Susan Lindee, "Science as Comic Metaphysics", Science 309: 383–4, 2005.
• Herbert I. London, forward by Herman Kahn, Why Are They Lying to Our Children (Against the doomsayer futurists), ISBN 0-9673514-2-1
• Louis Menand, " Fat Man: Herman Kahn and the Nuclear Age", The New Yorker, June 27, 2005.
• Claus Pias, "Hermann Kahn – Szenarien für den Kalten Krieg", Zurich: Diaphanes 2009, ISBN 978-3-935300-90-2

Pranala luar

• Essays about and by Herman Kahn Diarsipkan 2002-12-14 di Wayback Machine.
• Kahn's "escalation ladder" di texaschapbookpress.com Galat: URL arsip tidak dikenal (diarsipkan tanggal 20011023022548)
• "Herman Kahn's Doomsday Machine" Diarsipkan 2004-09-02 di Wayback Machine. by Andrew Yale Glikman, in "CYB + ORG = (COLD) WAR MACHINE", FrAme Diarsipkan 2011-04-08 di Wayback Machine., 26 September 1999.
• RAND Corporation unclassified papers by Herman Kahn, 1948–59
• Hudson Institute unclassified articles and papers by Herman Kahn, 1962–84 Diarsipkan 2006-05-06 di Wayback Machine.